A 1999 paper in the British Journal of Cancer concluded trends in asbestos-related mesothelioma deaths indicated over a quarter of a million men in western Europe will die of this cancer alone over the following 35 years. The paper predicted deaths from the disease among men in Western Europe would almost double form 5,000 in 1998 to about 9,000 in 2018. The research focused on six countries – Britain, Italy, France, The Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland. The paper indicated there would be one asbestos-related lung cancer death for every mesothelioma death, pushing the asbestos toll in Western Europe to half a million in the following 35 years. The estimate was contested in Hazards magazine, which said other experts say there could be up to three lung cancer deaths related to asbestos for every mesothelioma death – which would bring the toll over the next generation to 1 million needless deaths.

J Peto and others. The European mesothelioma epidemic, British Journal of Cancer, volume 79, number 3/4, page 666-672, 1999.

One million needless deaths, Hazards, number 65, January-March 1999 [not online].